基于生命年损失的地震灾害损失评估研究.pdf

基于生命年损失的地震灾害损失评估研究 江雪瑞 于汐 摘要：区别于传统的以人员伤亡、直接经济损失、间接经济损失为权衡目标的地震灾害损失评估，在 残疾调整生命年的基础上得出基于生命年指标的地震灾害损失评估方法。熟悉并了解我国历史地震灾害 损失数据，通过收集的震例损失数据，采用生命年损失的评估方法对我国地震进行生命年损失评估。研 究结果评释，形成生命年损失的主要内容是经济损失，占比已经超过了九成。以人均生命年为评价指标， 对地震灾害损失进行对比性剖析，为地震灾害损失的评估与对比性研究提供了一种新的思绪与方法。 关键词：地震;生命年;损失评估;可对比性 Earthquake disaster loss assessment based on lifeyears loss JIANG Xuerui YU Xi Abstract: Different from the traditional earthquake damage assessment based on casualties, direct economic losses and indirect economic losses, the earthquake disaster loss assessment method based on the life year indicator is obtained based on the disability-adjusted lifeyears. Familiar with and understand the historical earthquake disaster loss data in China. Through the collected earthquake case loss data, the lifeyears loss assessment method is used to evaluate the life-year loss of earthquakes in China. The research results show that economic loss is the main component of the loss of life years, accounting for more than 90%. Taking the per capita life year as the evaluation index, the comparative analysis of earthquake disaster losses provides a new idea and method for the evaluation and comparative study of earthquake disaster losses. Key words: earthquake; lifeyears; loss assessment; comparability 目录 1 引言1 2 生命年损失方法原理2 2.1 残疾调整生命年 2 2.2 灾害损失评估方法 3 2.2.1 基于投入产出分析的地震灾害经济间接损失评估 3 2.2.2 运用 GDP 指标来进行震后经济损失评估 3 2.3 生命年损失计算方法及原理 4 2.4 基于生命年损失的灾害损失评估方法的优点与局限性 5 2.4.1 优点 5 2.4.2 局限性 5 3 生命年损失相关参数取值问题的分析6 3.1 预期寿命 6 3.2 期望寿命 6 3.3 年龄中位数 6 3.4 伤残权重 7 3.5 恢复时间 8 3.6 折减系