CSFB瑞士信贷第一波士顿--投资策略报告.pdf

5 October 2004 Asia Pacific/China Investment Strategy Equity Research Life after the rebound No more than a bear market rebound. The current rebound of China stocks is normal in a Research team bear market environment. Indeed, a similar rebound happened in the last downcycle. The key Vincent Chan 852 2101 6568 is fixed-asset investment growth: Completing unfinished projects will help to maintain strong vincent.chan@ growth in 2004, but a ?project gapí would bring down growth significantly in 2005, in our view. Raymond Ho, CA Earnings outlook and valuation. Consensus EPS estimates have not yet been downgraded, 852 2101 6407 raymond.ho@ but this does not mean that they will not be in 2005. Widespread margin decline in downstream China Research Team sectors in China reveals that the current situation is unsustainable. With the overall China market Vincent Chan somehow ?fairly-valuedí, earnings upgrade/downgrades will drive the market ahead. (Head of Research) Government policy/reform update. In the next few months, all eyes will be on whether the 852 2101 6568 Angello Chan Chinese government will raise its interest rate or allow its currency to appreciate ? which, (Utilities Coal) despite all the talk, one should only believe when it happens. More concrete reform actions are Karen Chan (Airlines) being seen in other areas, such as the new VAT reform in northeast China and the attempt to Jay Chang deal with the ?non-tra