foundationofdecisionmaking外文文献.ppt

Managerial Decision making  The business executive is by profession a decision maker. Uncertainty is his opponent. overcoming it is his mission. 　　　　　　　　　　　　＿＿John Mcdonald 企业总裁是一个职业的决策者，不确定性是他的敌人，克服它则是他的使命。 ＿＿约翰.麦克唐纳 Managerial Decision making Learning Objectives 1．The kinds of decisions you will face as a manager. 2．How to make “rational” decisions. 3. The pitfalls you should avoid when making decisions. 4．The pros and cons of using a group to make decisions. Characteristics of Managerial Decisions （P70） -Lack of Structure 结构欠缺 -Uncertainty and Risk 不确定性和风险 -Conflict 冲突 Lack of Structure -Lack of structure is the usual state of affairs in managerial decision making. Although some decisions are routine and clear-cut, for most there is no automatic procedure to follow. Problems are novel and unstructured, leaving the decision maker uncertain about how to proceed. 日常和明确的，自动程序, 固定结构， 决策者无法确定如何解决它们. Uncertainty and risk - Certainty 确定性 The state that exists when decision makers have accurate and comprehensive information. - Uncertainty 不确定性 The state that exists when decision makers have insufficient information. - Risk 风险 When you can estimate the likelihood of various consequences, but still do not know with certainty what will happen, you are facing risk. The state （risk）that exists when the probability of success is less than 100 percent. Conflict -Opposing pressures from different sources. Two levels of conflict ： ① individual decision makers psychological conflict　 个人决策者的心理冲突 ② conflict arises between individuals or groups 发生在不同的个人和团队之间的冲突 Types of Decisions - Programmed decisions 程序化决策 Decisions encountered and made before, having objectively correct answers, and solvable by using simple r