[电子书][管理]企业_管理_中_的_竞争_问题_(CCMC_与_企业管理).ppt

〖管理经济学〗- 第八讲 企業管理中的競爭問題 董志勇 博士 副教授 中國民眾大學經濟學院 博弈論和策略行為 Game Theory Strategic Behaviors Lecture Plan/本講計畫 Game Theory Strategy Payoff Matrix Dominant Dominated Strategies Nash Equilibrium Maximin Strategy Mixed Strategy Strategic Behavior Elements of a Game Game has the following elements: Players: who is involved? Rules: who moves when? What do they know when they move? What can they do? Outcomes: for each possible set of actions by the layers, which is the outcome of the game Payoffs: what are the players’ preferences over the possible outcome? Strategy Payoffs 博弈論把人間一切競爭活動看成是玩策略遊戲。這種策略遊戲是在一定的遊戲規則之下進行 它的兩個最基本的概念是策略與支付矩陣 一種策略(Strategy)表示遊戲參與者的一套運作計畫和手段。如“降價15%”就是一種策略 收益矩陣(Payoff matrix)是表示遊戲參與者在各種不同策略下的利潤額的一套支付表格 寡頭壟斷，尤其是雙寡頭壟斷競爭，特別適合使用博弈論研究 Strategy Payoffs Prisoner’s Dilemma(已決犯兩難) 兩個嫌犯被捕並受到指控，但除非至少一人招供犯罪，警方並無充分證據將其按罪判刑 警方將他們分開審訊（不能溝通），並對他們說明不同行動帶來的後果。 如果二人都不坦白，只能判簡單刑事罪，坐牢1個月 如果二人都坦白，兩人都會定罪，判刑六個月； 如果其中一個坦白，另一個不坦白；那麼坦白者馬上釋放（從寬）、不坦白者將會判刑九個月。 請問兩個嫌犯該怎么辦？ Strategy Payoffs Prisoner’s Dilemma(已決犯兩難) 策略(Strategy): “沈默” “招認” 收益矩陣(Payoff Matrix)如下︰ Strategy Payoffs Prisoner’s Dilemma(已決犯兩難) 已決犯兩難的問題在現實中常常出現。 比如兩家企業的價格戰。 Strategy Payoffs 性別戰博弈 (The Battle of Sex) 一男一女試圖安排一個晚上的娛樂內容 選擇（策略）︰“歌劇”、“拳擊”；不過男女有別 收益矩陣(Payoff Matrix)如下︰ Strategy Payoffs Other Examples Coordination games Smith and Jones are trying to decide whether to design the computers they sell to use large or small floppy disks Both players will sell more computers if their disk drives are compatible. Strategies: “Large” or “Small” Payoffs are as follows. Strategy Payoffs Other Examples Coordination games: payoff matrix Dominant Strategies (支配策略) We say a player has a dominant strategy if it is the strictly best response to any strategies the other players might pick. In the analysis of any game, the first step is to determine if any player has a dominant strategy. If such a strategy exists, then the outcome of the game should be easily determined, since the player will use the dominan