基于_配料_的暴雨预报.pdf

34 4 V o l1 34 N o1 4 2010 7 Chinese Jo urnal of A tmospheric Sciences Jul . 2010 , , . 20 10. / 0 [ J ] . , 34 4) : 754- 756. Z hang Xiaoling , T ao S hiy an , Sun J ianh ua. 20 10. Ingredient s-based h eavy rainfall f orecast ing [ J] . Chin ese J ournal of A tm ospheric Sciences in C hinese) , 34 4) : 754- 766. / 0 1 2 2 张小玲 陶诗言 孙建华 1 , 100081 2 , 100029 / 0 2007 2003 , , / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 , 1006- 9 895 20 10) 04- 0754 - 13 P 426 A Ingredients-Based Heavy Rainfall Forecasting 1 2 2 ZH A N G Xiaoling , T A O Sh iy an , and S U N Jianh ua 1 N ational Meteorological Center , China Meteorological Administration, Beij ing 100081 2 Institute of A tmospheric Phy sics, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beij ing 100029 Abstract An appr oach to fo recast heav y pr ecipitatio n is developed, u sing the concept o f basic ing redients . Analyses of the heav y r ainf all cases in 2007 and 2003 sho w that r ainsto rm s share some co mmon dy nam ic and thermo dy namic env iro nmental co nditions, and their physical ing r edients obvio usly v ary w it h develo ping of deep mo ist convectiv e sy stem s in sever al heavy r ainf all t ypes in China. H ow to synthetic