家电行业2012预测 a tough year to go through.doc

A Tough Year to Go Through Home appliances will face great obstacles in 2012 For home appliance industry, the coming year seems not so appealing. Globally, shadow of debt crisis in Europe keeps covering every industry and curbs exports. Domestically, GDP is slowing its growth rate, while CPI stays stubbornly high; together with regulation and control of real estate industry, all the uncertainties are unfavorable to every player in the industry. Both white and black appliances might have to go through a tough year, and it is an irresistible trend to slowdown developing steps. LEFT-OVER PROBLEMS OF SUPPORTIVE POLICIES At the first sight, the overall attitude towards home appliance market in the coming 2012 is optimistic. Both Suning, one of the top home appliance retail giants and China Market Monitor Co., Ltd., the most authoritative expressed their confidence about the continuous growth of color TV industry. It is estimated that in 2012, the gross demand volume will break 43 million units, 2% more than the number of 2011. The gross demand value, accordingly, will reach 180 billion yuan, 7% up compared to the previous year. Air conditioner in 2011 has also been a bright spot. In the cold year 2011, shipments of domestic air conditioner market was 58.6 million sets, a YOY increase of 35.33%, and retail volume in domestic market reached a record high 43.4 million sets, with a 18.9% annual growth rate. However, it should be noticed that since the cold year 2011, inventory of air conditioners has also soared to record high. By the end of November 2011, products in stock in domestic market had reached unprecedented 200 million sets. As the time was regular dull season for air conditioner marketing, distributors all started to feel the tension brought by large inventory. As a matter of fact, previous booming of color TV, washing machines and air conditioners was closely related to the governments’ stimulus policies. “Home appliances to the countryside” policy, “energy-sa