新农保试点对农户人力资本投资行为的影响研究huiwei.docVIP

新农保试点对农户人力资本投资行为的影响研究:基于流动性约束视角 摘要 新农保是中国于2009年开展的、针对农村居民的、结合个人缴费和政府补贴的混合型养老保险。本项目首先建立一个基础的两时期家庭模型，对新农保影响贫困农户人力资本投资行为进行深入分析，综合考察新农保的各种作用途径，探索影响贫困农户人力资本投资行为的因素。然后以中国新农保试点所提供的准实验为契机，按照多阶段、概率与规模成比例（PPS）的方法 关键词: 新农保; 人力资本投资; 流动性约束 Abstract The new rural pension program of China is a combination of personal fee and governmental subsidy. It can relax liquidity constraints by increasing households income through pension allowance. Meanwhile, it can also strengthen liquidity constraints through pension fee. Its impact on liquidity constraints and hence on human capital investment is uncertain. This project will set up a basic two-period household model to analyze human capital investment of rural households under liquidity constraints and comprehensively investigate various channels through which the new rural pension may affect human capital investment. Meanwhile we will take use of the quasi-experiment provided by the piloting new rural pension program to do empirical research by sampling 750 households from three provinces. We will try to exclude self-selection bias, check various interactive channels and prove the propositions given by the theoretic model. When we want to induce human capital investment of rural households, knowledge on impact of liquidity constraints helps to make decision on proper policies. Analyses on spillover effect of the new rural pension program is helpful to evaluate the comprehensive economical and social value and hence to give fundamental reasons to expand the program in China and to all over the developing world. Key words: New rural program; Human capital investment; Liquidity constraints （一）立项依据与研究内容（4000-8000字）： 项目的立项依据（研究意义、国内外研究现状及发展动态分析，需结合科学研究发展趋势来论述科学意义；或结合国民经济和社会发展中迫切需要解决的关键科技问题来论述其应用前景。附主要参考文献目录） 1.1 研究背景 Yang，2005；Zhang et al., 2005; 张车伟, 2006; Wang et al., 2009）。然而，农村家庭孩子在大学中所占比例却非常低（Wang et al., 2011））Schultz, 1971; Becker, 1975 ），往往使信贷市场难以充分发挥作用，导致贫困家庭不能积累人力资本（Jacoby Skoufias, 1997））( 国)。新农保基金由个人缴费、集体补助、