地球科学前沿—基于遥感与Dinamica模型的中国LUCC模拟与预测.pdf

Advances in Geosciences 地球科学前沿, 2012, 2, 59-67 doi:10.4236/ag.2012.22008 Published Online June 2012 (/journal/ag) The Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change in * China with Remote Sensing and Dinamica Model Wei Yi1,2, Zhiqiang Gao1# 1Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 2Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Email: #gaoland@ Received: Feb. 6th, 2012; revised: Feb. 23rd, 2012; accepted: Mar. 2nd, 2012 Abstract: Dinamica EGO which consists of Markova process and cell automata is a time-space model used for land use and land cover simulation. It has been universally used whereas there are little study cases in China. In this paper, Di- namica EGO was used as a platform to simulate the land use of China in 2005 and to evaluate its simulation map with land use map extracted from remote sensing series data. The results showed that Dinamica EGO model could precisely predict land use change of China from 2000 to 2005 and at the same time, evidence weight method based on Bayesian could be utilized to analyze the major driving factors and spatial characteristics of land use during that period. On the basis of pre- vious work, land use map in 2005 was used as baseline to simulate land use conditions in 2015 and a further analysis of spatial patterns were conducted. This study could serve for land plan and carbon emission of China in the future. Keywords: Dinamica EGO; Land Use Change; Remote Sensing; Simulation 基于遥感与Dinamica 模型的中国LUCC 模拟与预测* 1,2 1# 易 维 ，高志强