南京城市水资源承载力变化分析.docVIP

  南京城市水资源承载力变化分析# 5 10 摘要：本文根据城市水资源形成与利用的特点建立评价指标体系，采用模糊综合评价法，分 析 2006~2010 年间南京城市水资源承载力的演化过程。结果表明，南京城市水资源承载力总 体呈增长态势，大致处于适载范围内，并分析了其变化的主要影响因素。进而，为促进未来 南京城市水资源承载力持续增长，采用敏感性分析法找出承载力变化的敏感性指标，选择污 水处理率、人均 GDP 和万元 GDP 用水量三项指标开展情景分析，分析得出：提高污水处理 率和水资源利用效率是保证南京社会经济适度增长、城市水资源承载力稳步提升的重要支 点，并相应提出了对策建议。 关键词：自然地理学；城市水资源承载力；模糊综合评价；敏感性分析；情景分析；南京 中图分类号：K903 15 Analysis of the Changing of Nanjing’s Urban Water Resources Carrying Capacity ZHU Ling, HAO Lisha (School of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023) 20 25 30 Abstract: In this paper, according to the characteristics of the formation and utilization of urban water resources, evaluation index system is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE), as well as analytic hierarchy process (AHP), are applied to analyze the changing of Nanjing’s urban water resources carrying capacity in 2006-2010. The results show that Nanjing’s urban water resources carrying capacity was roughly in the proper load range, and there was a growing trend in general for it, the main influencing factors for such changing are also analyzed. In order to achieve sustained growth, sensitivity analysis is applied to find out the sensitivity indexes, and select the rate of sewage treatment, GDP per capita and water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP three indexes for scenario analysis. It is find out that enhancement of the rate of sewage treatment and the decreasing of water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP are the supporting points to achieve the moderate growth for Nanjing social economy and steadily improvement for urban water resources carrying capacity, and the corresponding policy suggestions are also discussed. Key words: Natural Geography; Urban water resources carrying capacity; Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; sensitivity analysis; scenario analysis; Nanjing 35 0 引言 水资源是人类生存与生活、社会经济发展不可缺少的自然资源，也是保证生态环境良性 循环的控制性要素[1]。区域能否实现可持续发展，很大程度上取决于水资源的保障程度[2]。 城市是一个地区政治、经济、文化的中心，在区域社会经济发展中具有举足轻重的地位。然 4