基于六部门分解模型的实证分析.doc

经济高速增长下的我国能源强度变动特征：基于六部门分解模型的实证分析* 基于我国1980 －2003年的经济与能源统计数据，对比分析现有能源消耗强度完全分解模型的求解方法，开展六部门结构变化及其能源消耗强度变化对我国能源消耗强度下降的影响方向及影响份额的实证研究。结果表明：用简单平均微分PDM2方法分解计算的结果误差是相当小的，效果满意；中国能源消耗强度下降主要是各部门能源使用效率提高的结果，其中，工业部门的技术改进影响着能源消耗强度。能源消耗强度 六部门分解模型 效率 结构 Changes in Energy Consumption Intensity of China and its Factors with High Economy Growth: Empirical Analysis Based on the Model of Decomposition of Six Sectors Abstracts: We decompose the factors of the changes in energy consumption intensity of in China 1980-2003 by adopting the Methods of simple average differential PDM2. In our model, we found that the decreasing intensity of energy consumption is the consequence of improved efficiency of energy usage in the industry in China. Furthermore, the technical improvements of the industry sector affect the energy consumption intensity largely. Key words: Energy consumption intensity,Model of decomposition of six departments , Efficiency,Structure 作者联系方式： 吴巧生，电话：02767883382 Email: qshwu@cug.edu.cn 通讯地址：430074，中国地质大学（武汉）经济学院 经济高速增长下的我国能源强度变动特征：基于六部门分解模型的实证分析 吴巧生 （中国地质大学（武汉）经济学院，武汉，430074） 基于我国1980 －2003年的经济与能源统计数据，对比分析现有能源消耗强度完全分解模型的求解方法，开展六部门结构变化及其能源消耗强度变化对我国能源消耗强度下降的影响方向及影响份额的实证研究。结果表明：用简单平均微分PDM2方法分解计算的结果误差是相当小的，效果满意；中国能源消耗强度下降主要是各部门能源使用效率提高的结果，其中，工业部门的技术改进与结构变动共同影响着能源消耗强度。能源消耗强度 六部门分解模型 效率 结构 Changes in Energy Consumption Intensity of China and its Factors with High Economy Growth: Empirical Analysis Based on the Model of Decomposition of Six Sectors Abstracts: We decompose the factors of the changes in energy consumption intensity of in China 1980-2003 by adopting the Methods of simple average differential PDM2. In our model, we found that the decreasing intensity of energy consumption is the consequence of improved efficiency of energy usage in the industry in China. Furthermore, the technical improvements of the industry sector affect the energy consumption intensity largely. Key words: Energy consumption intensity,Model of decomposition of six se