当前我国家庭户规模及其影响因素.pdf

摘 要 随着社会经济的迅速发展和计划生育政策的实施,我国家庭领域发生了重 大变迁,家庭规模小型化是其核心内容之一。家庭是许多产品和服务的基本消 费单位,了解家庭户规模的变化和现状,可以为政府和企业制定发展规划提供 参考。在对关于我国家庭户规模的文献进行全面回顾后发现,目前对家庭户规模 影响因素的研究大都使用省级地区数据进行多元回归分析或通径分析,往往存 在样本量不足的问题,而且也忽视了个人和家庭基本特征对户规模的影响,同 时现有研究往往忽略家庭生命周期对户规模的影响。 本文使用2005年中国综合社会调查数据描述了当前我国家庭户规模的基本 情况,比较了不同特征家庭户规模的差异,进一步构建序次Logistic回归模型分 析影响我国家庭户规模的因素。结果发现,被访者的个人特征、家庭层次以及 省级层次变量对家庭户规模都有显著的影响,个人受教育程度高、居住在城市、 处在家庭形成和扩张阶段、经济发达和生育水平低的地区成立小型家庭的可能 性更大。 关键词:家庭户规模;影响因素1Abstract As the socio-economy developed rapidly and the family planning policy began to be carried out, great changes have taken place in the field of family. The trend that family household size tends to be smaller and smaller was one of the significant characteristics. The household is the basic consuming unit of many products and service. To understand the history and the current situation of household size can provide references to related government departments and enterprisesAfter reviewed the literature about family household, the author found that most of the researches about family size used the provincial level data to make OLS model or path analysis. Too few samples is one of the shortcomings of these studies. At the same time, these studies ignored the influence of individual and the family levelWhat’s more, these researches did not realize the impact of family life cycleThis paper used the data of China General Social Survey 2005 to describe the current situation of family household and compared the differences of household size of different characteristics, then make a ordinal logistic regression model to analyze the influential factorsThe main conclusions are as follows: 1The characteristics of individual, family and provincial level can all affect the size of family household; 2 The level of education has a negative effect of family size, well-educated individuals tend to have smaller families; 3 Family life cycle has some influence to family size, the size of being stable phase is larger than that of e