房地产价格波动对金融稳定的影响.pdf

摘 要 本文主要通过分析房地产市场以及房地产价格波动的特性,研究房地产价 格波动对金融稳定性影响及其传导机制。 房地产价格不同于普通商品价格,鉴于房地产同时具备消费品和投资品的 双重属性,房地产价格存在短期内剧烈波动的可能性,其价格的波动效应更会 通过货币政策传导机制以及微观经济主体的投机行为传导至金融系统。而对于 金融稳定的内涵及其衡量指标,当前的研究中并无绝对的定论。本文在深刻认 识金融稳定的概念及内涵的基础上,将金融机构、金融市场以及货币政策三个 主体作为衡量金融稳定的三个维度,并建立了相应的衡量指标。 本文分别研究了房地产价格波动对金融机构、金融市场以及货币政策的冲 击和影响。在理论分析的基础上,文章还对眼前席卷全球的美国次级贷款危机 和日本泡沫经济危机进行了历史回顾,着力分析房地产价格波动对金融稳定的 冲击,以期以历史经验支持先前的理论推导。而理论和历史的经验都证明了房 地产价格波动会造成风险在金融机构中聚集,影响金融市场中金融产品价格, 造成货币政策传导机制异化并对货币政策构成“倒逼”。随后,本文采用格兰杰 因果检验和 VAR模型对中国房地产价格波动对金融稳定的影响进行了实证分 析,实证结果也进一步证实了上述理论分析的判断。 昀后,本文在理论和实证研究结论的基础上,针对如何防范中国房地产价格 对金融稳定产生的冲击提出了相应的政策建议。 关键词:房地产价格; 金融稳定 Abstract This paper starts from the analysis on the specifications of property market and the fluctuation of property price, and then studies its impacts on the financial stability and the transmit channels as well The property price is quite different from that of common commodities. And the property price is probable to fluctuate violently because of the property’s double attributes of commodity and investment. Moreover, the fluctuation of property price will be transmitted to the whole financial system through the transmit channels of monetary policy and speculations of microeconomic entities. As of financial stability, there are no definitive studies on it and its measurement. Based on the extensive literature review, this paper defines the financial stability from such three dimensions as financial institutions, financial market and monetary policy and chooses corresponding indices to measure themThis paper conducts analyses on the impacts of the fluctuation of property price on the financial institutions, financial market and monetary policy. In addition to the theoretical analysis, the paper also reviews the current sub-prime mortgage crisis and Japan’s economic bubbles in 1980s-1990s, expecting to provide more historical evidence to support the previous theoretical analysis. Both the theoretical analysis and historical review show that the fluctuatio