基本养老保险个人账户的测算与分析.pdf

摘 要 1997年我国确立了社会统筹和个人账户相结合的基本养老保险模式，使原 来的现收现付制增加了积累的元素。制度经过十多年的发展，分账管理和做实 个人账户是制度的基调。个人账户是实行完全积累制，以收定支，追求自身收 支平衡。随着我国养老保险制度改革的不断完善，做实个人账户、对个人账户 资金运营投资，谋求高投资高收益率，抵御人口老龄化带来冲击已成为我国养 老保险改革的一项重要内容。 本文通过运用利息理论构建个人账户现金流模型，运用模型测算出现行政 策下个人账户的替代率和支付年限等基本情况，另外，引入生命表中的平均余 寿作为参考，测算维持个人账户平衡的投资收益率情况。 本文的内容共分五个部份：第一部分是导论，主要是问题的提出、研究目 的和意义、研究方法、相关概念界定以及文献综述。二是个人账户的变迁与现 状，介绍个人账户的演变过程和现阶段存在的问题。三是测算模型的构建和参 数设定，根据现行政策规定设定测算参数。四是个人账户的测算分析，包括个 人账户养老金替代率、支付年限和投资收益率三方面的测算分析。五是结果与 讨论，主要分析思考假设我国把个人账户投资运营收益率达到期望值的可能性。 关键词：个人账户；替代率；投资收益率 1 Abstract In 1997, the basic endowment insurance model which combined both common account and individual account was established. This model added the accumulation element to the original Pay-As-You-Go model. After ten years of development, to implement independent account while strengthening individual accounts has become the keynote of the endowment pension model of China. Fully accumulated model are adopted in the individual account, which means that the expenditure must depend on the income in order to maintain the balance of the individual account. As the progress of the reform of China’s endowment pension system, one of the important elements of the reform is to strengthen the individual account by investment operations of funding of individual account in pursuit of high rate of return on investment and to resist the impact of the aging of the population. In the current study, the author established the cash flow model of the individual account, and further calculated the replacement rate of