中国四大城市商品房价格与城市居民收入差距研究.pdf

内容摘要 目前学术界关于中国房地产价格的研究主要围绕如何衡量目前的泡沫水平 和如何进行泡沫预警。而在决定商品住房内在价值的基本面因素中，居民收入 是一个关键变量。中国一线城市住房市场化历史仅仅十余年，居民收入差距大 于发达国家，因此,采用居民平均收入而不考虑收入差距和财富分布因素的需求 分析可能无法全面分析商品住房的市场需求。此前的研究由于没有考虑到购买 人群的收入特征，存在过大地估计商品住房价格偏离基本面因素决定的均衡价 格的情况。 本文利用 1995 年至 2008 年间北京、上海、广州、深圳以及全国整体的商 品房成交价格与宏观经济基本面因素的数据，以投机泡沫模型思想为基础，以 本文构造的城市收入差距变量为优化基本面因素的关键变量，对四大城市城市 以及全国整体商品住房价格与基本面因素以及投机因素的关系进行检验。分析 结论表明，考虑了城市居民收入差距后，四大城市以及全国整体城市房价可由 “基本面因素”较好解释，四大城市房价存在偏离基本面因素决定的均衡价格 的情况，但房价有向均衡价格回归倾向，房价不存在泡沫不断积累的趋势。 关键词：四大城市；商品房价；投机泡沫；经济基本面；收入差距 1 Abstract Current academic research on China’s property prices mostly focus on how to evaluate the bubble and how to develop a warning system of price bubbles. However, as one of the most important determinants of property prices, household income levels are tend to be wrongly estimated in China. The commodity housing market was developed only ten years ago. And as a fast developing country, China’s income distribution tends to be much wider than developed countries. Therefore, when evaluating property prices, using average household income without considering household income distribution, may not fully gauge the real income-driven demand of home purchases. Research based on average income can therefore overestimate the degree to which commodity housing price violating from the equilibrium price by ignoring income distribution characteristics of buyers. Based on annual property prices and macroeconomic data between 1995 and 2008 in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and building on the work of speculative bubble model and using household income inequality variable this paper innovates, this paper exams the relationshi