贸易转移、FDI与中国的环境污染.pdf

论文摘要 本文以环境库兹涅茨曲线、污染避难所假说等理论为基础，以贸易转移对环 境污染的影响以及 FDI 在其中的作用为视角，研究中国的贸易与环境问题。通 过理论分析笔者发现贸易转移和污染转移存在互为因果关系。由于贸易量增加及 出口商品中隐含污染物排放和能源消耗的存在，导致贸易转移会引发污染转移； 由于环境标准较低引发的污染避难所现象则会使得污染产业向中国转移的同时 带来贸易转移，而 FDI 则在贸易转移和污染转移中起到中介和桥梁的作用。此 外，通过协整分析、误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果关系的实证检验，证明了在中 日韩之间的贸易转移对中国的环境污染存在着长期均衡的正相关关系，并且两者 互为因果。因此，中国的出口顺差隐含着污染物排放的逆差，中国应当改变以牺 牲环境为代价的出口导向型经济模式，通过提升产业结构，加强国际环境合作使 对外贸易走上可持续的发展道路。 关键词：贸易与环境 贸易转移 污染避难所 污染转移 隐含污染物 Abstract This essay is based on theories such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), pollution heaven hypothesis to research on the trade and environment problem in China focusing on the perspective of trade transfer and its impact on pollution as well as the role of FDI in the process. With theoretical analysis, it is proved that trade transfer and pollution are reciprocal causation, the increase of export amount and embodied pollutants emissions and resources consumptions result to pollution transfer while the pollution heaven phenomena arise from the low environmental standards in China has attracted more polluting industries to shift to China and hence cause the trade transfer effect. Also, it is proved that FDI has played the role of an important intermediary between trade transfer and pollution transfer. In addition, through cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, it is found that there is a long term positive equilibrium between the trade transfer among China, Japan, and Korea and the pollution in China, and it is also found that these two factors are reciprocal causation. So, the surplus of China’s exports embodied with deficit of pollutants emissions, and China should change its export-orient economic pattern w