可持续发展的煤炭利用TransformingCoalforSustainability.pptVIP

可持续发展的煤炭利用Transforming Coal for Sustainability 国合会 能源专题组 TFEST of CCICED 中国目前的能源系统是不可持续的The energy system in China is unsustainable 将来面临的风险： 过度依赖石油进口 环境状况迅速恶化 温室气体减排代价高昂 China will become overly dependent on oil imports as a result of rapidly growing demand for liquid fuels Severe environment damages caused by direct combustion of coal China will not be able to make its contribution to mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under low cost. 中国一次能源将来仍将以煤炭为主The coal is the main part of primary energy in China 以合理成本降低上述风险的方案To mitigate these risks at reasonable cost 中国能源模型分析表明，面对这些风险，传统的技术方案无法解决问题。 通过采用煤炭现代化利用的战略能够以合理的代价降低上述风险 The business as usual mode can’t solve the above mentioned problem . Through modernization of coal utilization, the above mentioned problems could be solved with reasonable cost. 煤炭现代化利用的含义Meaning of Modernization of coal utilization 煤炭的现代化是指通过煤气化技术来生产热能，电力，运输用清洁燃料，炊事用燃料等，即多联产能源系统。 Modernization of coal utilization——large scale gasification of coal and coproduction of liquid fuels(methanol, dimethyl ether, etc), other value-added chemicals and electric power. If necessary, syngas and heat for residential use could also be provided. It is so-called polygeneration system. 采用先进技术方案的效果The effect of Advanced Technologies Scenario 成本与传统技术方案相当 煤炭开采量与传统技术方案相当 SO2的排放从1995年的2370万吨下降到2020年的1620万吨、2050年的880万吨。 石油与天然气进口量限制在总消耗量的30%左右。 累计CO2排放量少于660亿吨碳 Provides the same energy services at about the same cost as the Base technologies strategy SO2 emissions are reduced from 23.7 Mt in 1995 to 16.2 Mt in 2020 and 8.8 Mt in 2050 Imports of oil and natural gas are limited to 30% of consumption of oil and gas over the long-term 66 Gt C caps 实施煤炭现代化利用战略刻不容缓 Urgent Action by China’s Leadership is Required 要增加到2020年的小康水平 ，中国的煤电装机增量约为5亿kW 若不早做安排，新建煤电会全部采用直接燃烧的方式，左右今后30年煤炭利用格局 需要国家总体调控下，在总量中安排部分以煤气化为核心的多联产项目。 For modernization, rapidly growth of electricity is needed. large investments are planned for electricity over the next decade