地震前兆之电层时空监测(III).pdfVIP

地震前兆之電離層時空監測 (III) 1 2 劉正彥 陳玉英 1中央大學太空科學研究所 2中央大學統計研究所 林昭儀 張弼超 中央氣象局地震測報中心 摘要 全球定位系統 GPS 之地球科學應用日益蓬勃發展，近年來科學家研究發現大 地震前電離層電子含量 TEC會有異常變化。中央氣象局目前建立有上百個 GPS連 續觀測站，監測台灣地殼變動與斷層活動。本研究計畫將為利用中央氣象局旣有 觀測站記錄資料計算電離層全電子含量。建立判別異常之參考、檢視異常與大地 震之相關性，以發展統計模型以搜尋和監測台灣地區地震前兆電離層全電子含量 之時空異常前兆。98 年度比對電離層時間空間參數與其他計畫之地磁變化、地殼 形變、地形、水位等地震前兆以一窥未來地震可能發生之位置。同時結合中央氣 象局旣有觀測以繪製電離層 GPSTEC動態資料，以即時監測台灣地區電離層異 常，並再一次推估未來地震可能發生之地點。 The global positioning system (GPS) has broad applications in geosciences. Recently scientists study variations of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to search anomalies associated with strong earthquakes. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) has set up hundreds of GPS receivers to monitor land deformation and seismicity. This project is to deduce ionospheric TEC from measurements of the CWB GPS receiver network, construct a reference for identifying anomalies of the GPS TEC, examine the relationship between ionospheric anomalies and strong earthquakes, and finally develop a statistical model to identify and monitor temporal and spatial of anomalies of the ionospheric GPS TEC in Taiwan. The working items of 2009 are cross comparing various pre-earthquake anomalies of the ionospheric GPS TEC and the other measurements, such as the geomagnetic field, land deformation, geography, well water level etc. to search the forthcoming epicenter. Meanwhile, data from the CWB 293 GPS network are used to construct the ionospheric TEC maps to monitor pre-earthquake anomalies and to also foresee the epicenter in Taiwan. 壹、前言 本研究計畫之目的為發展統計模型以利用電離層全電子