Modeling the Size of Wars.docVIP

Modeling the Size of Wars From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles* Lars-Erik Cederman Department of Government, Harvard University 1737 Cambridge St. Cambridge, Mass. 02138 cederman@ Phone: (617) 495-8923 January 20, 2002 VERSION 3.0. COMMENTS WELCOME! Abstract: Richardson’s finding that the severity of interstate wars is power-law distributed belongs to the most striking empirical regularities in world politics. As with earthquakes, there are many small events, fewer large ones, and a very small number of huge disasters. Yet, this is a regularity in search for a theory. Drawing on the principles of