本科毕业论文-国际石油价格波动对中国经济的影响及对策分析.doc

学年论文 题 目 影响及对策分析 学 院 专 业 班 级 学 生 学 号 指导教师 年月日根据国家统计局刚刚发布的数据，中国去年第四季度经济增速为8.9%，尽管创下两年多来最低水平，但依然高于此前预期的8.7%。受此提振，国际油价1月17日强劲上扬，再度突破100美元/桶。纽约联储银行1月17日也宣布，1月份纽约州制造业指数创下9个月来的最高水平，显示出制造业持续复苏，增强了投资者的信心。不过，2012年国际油价上扬的最大压力还是来自箭在弦上的伊朗局势。国际石油价格，从去年开始，就基本上处于一种逐步上扬的态势。目前，世界石油的价格上升到每桶55美元左右。在美国入侵伊拉克之前，世界石油有涨有跌，但是基本都稳定在每桶三十美元以下。 对于中国来说，这些年我们石油的使用量大约在2.4亿吨左右。其中，自己生产的大约有1.6亿吨，进口大约有0.8亿吨。进口量大约占国内总量的三分之一左右。面对世界石油价格动荡和上扬，中国在这个问题上作出客观冷静的分析是首要的，并且拿出切实立即可行的措施出来，是非常现实的。 ABSTRACT According to the National Bureau of Statistics recently released data, China last year fourth quarter growth is 8.9%, although the record over the past two years the lowest level, but still higher than previously expected 8.7%. Boosted by this, the international oil price rise again strong in January 17th, break through 100U.S. dollars / barrel. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced in January 17th, New York manufacturing industry index hit 9months to the highest level, show the manufacturing industry continued to recover, enhance investor confidence. However,2012 international oil price to rise the maximum pressure or from the line in Iran. International oil price, begin from last year, is basically in a gradually rising trend. Current, world oil price rises to about $55 a barrel. In the United States before the invasion of Iraq, world oil prices have dropped, but the basic stability in the below $thirty a barrel. These years we oil use about 2.4tons. Among them, their production of about 1.6tons, imported about 0.8tons. Imports accounted for about 1/3 of the total domestic about. In the face of the world oil price turmoil and rising, China on this issue to make objective and sober analysis is principal, and the practical and feasible measures out immediately, is very practical. This paper is divided into three areas, respectively, is the international petroleum price fluctuation characteristics of the historic