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6th Norges Bank Monetary Policy Conference 11-12 June 2009.ppt
What the paper shows… Based on consumer and professional inflation survey data for selected euro area countries: Constant gain learning is ‘reasonable’ Higher inflation countries have higher gains – more weight on more recent data Professionals have higher gains than households Expectations have not ‘converged’ across all countries Learning Learning is a ‘one-way street’ in the model – that is, there is no feed back from learning to outcomes, and back to learning. – feedback/self referential learning requires a more complex, multiple equation model – may help to better interpret the results, e.g., link constant gain estimates to persistence of inflation? Heterogeneous expectations Results suggest that learning speed differs across agents – households and experts – and across countries But, which agents matter more for prices/wages? And, does cross-country variation reflect plausible structural differences? European inflation dynamics Implications of differences in constant gains Table 4 (monthly, average across models) – Households gain ‘weights’ Germany 0.00125 1 in Dec-06 ? in Oct-60 Spain 0.0535 1 in Dec-06 ? in Dec-05 Table 9 (quarterly, average across models) – Experts gain ‘weights’ Germany 0.098 1 in Dec-06 ? 6-7 qtrs prior Italy 0.151 1 in Dec-06 ? 4-5 qtrs prior Price Level Index Eurostat data, average across 204 goods and services European inflation dynamics Convergence of expectations * 6th Norges Bank Monetary Policy Conference 11-12 June 2009 Discussion Christopher Kent Reserve Bank of Australia Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning and European Inflation Dynamics Anke Weber Table 1: Beta estimates from Tables 15 and 17 versus Inflation 1.91 1.75 1.79 Euro area 3.33 2.92 2.90 4.41 Spain 2.16 2.23 1.72 1.18 Netherlands 2.06 2.09 1.67 3.00 Italy 1.57 1.53 1.71 2.30 France 1.41 1.41 1.63 1.45 Germany 1997-2006 (monthly, year-on-year) Experts Households (weighted average, HH’s Table 4) (average) Final state HICP Inflation (
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