基于模糊结构元理论的煤矿危险源评价的研究.doc

摘  要  我国煤矿安全管理工作虽然取得了很大的成绩，但是安全事故时有发生，安全管理仍 然存在多方面的问题，危险源评价是预防重大事故发生的重要手段，也是危险源控制和管 理的前提。因此，作好煤矿危险源的评价工作十分必要。 本文首先分析了我国目前的煤矿生产安全形势及其原因，指出了煤矿事故危险源评价 的重要性，从而提出本课题选题的意义。在认真阅读煤矿安全评价理论的基础上，通过大 量的事故类型统计和分析选取发生起数最多的瓦斯事故、顶板事故、火灾和水害事故为评 价对象，深入研究了导致这几类煤矿事故发生的影响因素。其次，通过系统分析导致煤矿 事故发生的因素，根据煤矿评价指标体系建立的原则，甄别出最具有代表性的指标，确立 了煤矿五大事故的危险源评价指标体系，并通过专家调查法确定了各指标在评价系统中的 权重。最后，在比较分析的基础上选取了基于模糊结构元理论评价方法，建立了基于模糊 结构元理论煤矿危险源评价模型。并以通化矿业（集团）有限公司的下属煤矿的实际数据 进行了验证，得出了该集团的安全生产的综合情况，并据此提出了相应的对策和措施，为 通化矿业集团的安全管理提供了依据。 关键词：煤矿危险源；模糊结构元；评价模型； - I - Abstract The safety management work of our coal mine acquired great achievements, but accidents happen from time to tome and the safety management still exist many problems. Hazards assessment is premise to prevent serious accident, also be the important means of hazard control and management. Therefore, to finish hazards assessment of coal mine is necessary. In this paper, it analyzed the present situation of safety production in coal mine and the reasons. It pointed out the importance of mining accidents hazards assessment. Then it expatiated the meaning of this topic. Through reading evaluation theory of coal mine safety earnestly, it selected gas accidents, roof accidents, fire, water accidents, which happened most times, and the coal occupational disease as the main evaluation objects, which happened along with coal production process at any time. It held a study on influence factors which caused of these kinds of coal mine accidents. It analyzed the factor of coal mine accidents systematically which caused coal mine, discerned the most representative index according to the principle of evaluation index system, and established five accidents hazards evaluation index system of coal mine. Then it ascertained the weights of various indexes in the evaluation system through the experts’ investigation.In this paper, it selected fuzzy structured element as the evaluation theory through the comparative analysis, then it built model to evaluate coal hazards. It v