全球变暖对我国西北地区小麦生产的影响.pdfVIP

Climate Change Research Letters 气候变化研究快报, 2012, 1, 51-58 doi:10.4236/ccrl.2012.12006 Published Online July 2012 (/journal/ccrl) The Impact of Global Warming on Wheat Yields in Northwest China 1 2 Xiaobo Shen , Fangping Cao 1China Center for Energy Economics Research, Xiamen University, Xiamen 2 School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing Email: xbshen@, cfp_888@126.com Received: May 30th, 2012; revised: Jun. 10th, 2012; accepted: Jun. 20th, 2012 Abstract: Using the input-output data of wheat production and climate data in five provinces of northwest China during 1978-2007, this paper studies the impact of global warming on the wheat yields in northwest China. It concludes that the annual average temperature rises one percent, the wheat yields will reduce by 0.023%, while there is no significant impact of annual precipitation amount and annual sun-shining hours on wheat yields. In order to counter the impact of global warming on wheat production in northwest China, it is necessary to explore the adaptive measures in farming practice, seed cultivation, use of arable land, and the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disaster. Keywords: Global Warming; Wheat Yields; Northwest China; Adaptation 全球变暖对我国西北地区小麦生产的影响 1 2 沈小波 ，曹芳萍 1 厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心，厦门 2 北京林业大学经济管理学院，北京 Email: xbshen@, cfp_888@126.com 收稿日期：2012 年 5 月 30 日；修回日期：2012 年 6 月 10 日；录用日期：2012 年 6 月 20 日 摘 要：本文利用西北五省(区)1978~2007 年小麦生产的投入产出数据和气候数据，研究了全球变暖对该地区小