国际货币基金组织-IMF世界经济展望2013年1月报告.pdfVIP

FOR RELEASE: In Washington, D.C. (EST): 10:00 a.m., January 23, 2013 Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013 Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections . Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed. While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term. At the same time, policies have supported a modest growth pickup in some emerging market economies, although others continue to struggle with weak external demand and domestic bottlenecks. If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected. However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks. Economic conditions improved modestly in the third supportive financial market environment and the quarter of 2012 (Figure 1), with global growth turnaround in the housing market have helped to increasing to about 3 percent. The main sources of improve household balance sheets and should acceleration were emerging market economies, underpin firmer consumption growth in 2013. The where activity picked up broadly as expected, and projections, however, are predicated on the the United States, where growth surprised on the assumptions in the October 2012 WEO that the upside. Financial conditi