基于模糊影响图的供应链违约风险评估_英文_.pdfVIP

J ou rna l of Sou theast U n iversity Eng lish Ed ition 　V o l. 23, Sup , pp. 111 - 117 D ec. 2007　ISSN 1003—7985 Eva lua tion of supply cha in default r isk ba sed on fuzzy influence d iagram 1, 2 1 1 M a H anw u M a Q in rong 　 Fu G u ohu i 1 Schoo l of B u s iness A dm in istration, J iangsu U n iversity, Zhenj iang 2 12013, C h ina 2 S choo l of Econom ics and M anagem en t, Sou theast U n iversity, N anj ing 2 10096, C h ina Abstract:A fter in troduc ing the supp ly chain defau lt risk and its causes, based on the literatu re rev iew of the evaluation m ethods of supp ly chain risks, a new evaluation m ethod called the fuzzy influence d iagram w h ich com b ines fuzzy sets w ith influence d iagram theory and considers the in teraction am ong risk factors is p rop osed. Fu rtherm ore, an evaluation m odel of the supp ly chain defau lt risk is estab lished based on the research of defau lt risk evaluation and the fuzzy influence d iagram. F irst, the m odel takes the loss of risk as a valuab le node, risk factors as random nodes, draw ing a risk analysis influence d iagram. Then, th ree k inds of fuzzy sets are defined, includ ing state fuzzy sets, p robab ilistic fuzzy sets and a relation fuzzy m atrix. F inally, by using the fuzzy algorithm to eva luate nodes, the p robab ility of risk occu rrence and the degrees of risk loss are ob tained. O n the basis of the m odel, an instance app lication is used to p rove its u tility and effectiveness. Key words: supp ly chain m anagem en t SCM ; risk m anagem en t; fuzzy influence d iagram ; evaluation Supp ly cha in m anagem en t SCM , as a new sty le of m anagem en t m ode and m ethod, has been accep ted by the m ajority of com p an ies, ach iev ing g reat success. A lthough SCM resu lts in great econom ic p erform ance, it a lso en ta ils var