兴安落叶松地理分布对气候变化响应的模拟_李峰.pdf

2006 12 17 12 CH INESE JOURNA L OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, D c. 2006, 17( 12): 2255~ 2260 * 1, 2 1* * 3 李 峰 周广胜 曹铭昌 1 2 3 ( , 100093; , 100039; , 100 10 1) 17, ( GLM )( SGLM )( GAM ) ( CART) , GAM . , GAM , . , SRES-A , 2020 2 581 1% , 2050 991 7% ; SRES-B , 2020 2 6614% , 2050 971 9% . , 2100, . 100 1- 9332( 2006) 12- 2255- 06 Q 14 1 A Responses ofLar ix gm elin ii geographical distribution to future climate change: A simulation study. LI 1, 2 1 3 1 F ng , ZHOU Guangsh ng , CAO M ingcang ( L a boratory of Q ua ntitat iv e Veg e tation E cology, Institute of B o ta- ny, Ch inese A cademy of S c iences, B ei ing 100093, Ch ina; 2Graduate Un iv ers ity of Ch inese A cad em y of S ciences, B e i ing 100039, Ch ina; 3Inst itute of G eog rap h ica l S c iences a nd N atura l R esources R esearch, Ch inese A cademy of S c iences, B e i ing 100101, Ch ina) . -Ch in. J. App l. E c ol. , 2006, 17( 12) : 2255~ 2260. W ith w arm th ind x, coldn ss ind x, hum id ity ind x, m an annual pr cip it