李腊生 天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心 复杂环境下货币政策选择.pdfVIP

复杂环境下货币政策的选择 对2007 年以来货币政策的评价与反思 李腊生 王欣 （天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心 300222） 内容摘要：始于2007年2月美国次贷危机逐渐演化为全球性金融危机，进而传递到实体经 济部门演变成全球性经济危机。作为一个正在积极融入世界经济和金融体系的国家，中国自 然无法置身度外，我国经济运行正面临着前所未有的挑战。这种无法预期的外部冲击是否是 导致我国经济运行陷入困境的唯一重要因素呢？本文在简要回顾2007年以来货币政策实施 情况的基础上，通过对我国货币政策传导渠道有效性的实证分析，结合我们面临已经变化的 复杂环境，从多个角度对本轮紧缩性货币政策的实施效果展开讨论与分析，我们认为，2007 年以来紧缩性货币政策是一次重大的政策选择失误，开放经济的复杂环境下的货币政策选择 一定要考虑国际间的协调，美元泛滥时一定慎用紧缩性货币政策。 关键词：货币政策；信用渠道；通货膨胀；人民币升值预期 The Selection of Monetary Policy in a Complex Environment Evaluation and Reflection of Monetary Policy since the 2007 Li La-sheng, Wang Xin (Research center of China economic statistics, Tianjin university of finance and economics,300222) Abstract:The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States began in February 2007, has gradually worsen into global financial crisis, since the involvement of real economy, it finally evolved into global economic crisis. As a country who is making active efforts to integrate into the world economy and financial system, China of course can not be free of it. Our economic operation is facing unprecedented challenges. If the unexpected external shock is the only important factor for the cause of the trouble running? Basing on the review of Chinese monetary policy since the 2007,this paper makes the empirical analysis for the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission channel and after combining the complex environment and from multiple perspectives analysis, we believe the Tightening of Monetary Policy adoped in 2007 is a serious policy mistake in selection. In the complex environment of opening economy, the coordination of the international community must be considered under