住房需求的收入弹性_模型_估计与预测_郑思齐.pdf

: 郑思齐 刘洪玉 ( , 1000 84) : , , , , 0. 86, , , , , : ; ; ; : F2933 : A : 1000131X ( 2005) INCOME ELASTICITY OF HOUSING DEMAND IN CHINA: MODEL, ESTIMATION AND FORECAST Zheng Siqi L iu H ongy u ( Tsinghua Universi y, Beijing 100084, China) Abstract: Income elas ici y of housing demand is an impor an index reflec ing he charac eris ics of housing demand . This pa per inves iga es he defini ion and es ima ion of income elas ici y, and uses crosssec ion da a o es ima e he income elas ici y of households who buy commercial houses in Beijing. T he s a is ical resul s show ha he elas ici y is 086 for hose househol ds, smaller han developed coun ries. So housing s ill belongs o consump ion goods, and households have li le housing in ves men mo ives. The elas ici y es ima ion moves up f irs and hen declines along wi h he increase of income. I also raises and hen drops wi h he aging of he household head . Income elas ici y is also employed o es ima e he increase of housing de mand in a ci y. The quan i a ive conclusions of his paper have impor an implica ions for he s udy of marke s ruc ure and he forecas of housing demand. Keywords: housing demand ; income elas ici y; household income; household lifecycle ( ) , ; , , ,