斯托克、沃森着《计量经济学》第一章.pdfVIP

计量经济学 Econometrics Chapter 1. Economic Questions and Data 计量经济学的定义：Econometrics is the science and art of using economic theory and statistical techniques to analyze economic data. 1 其他定义： （1） The science of testing economic theory. （2 ） The set of tools used for forecasting future values of economic variables. （3 ） The process of fitting mathematical economic models to real-world data. （4 ） The science and art of using historical data to make quantitative policy recommendations in government and business. 2 计量经济学的用途：经济学的各个领域；政治学；社会学 等 Why econometrics? Economics suggests interesting relations, often with policy implications, but virtually never suggests quantitative magnitudes of causal effects. 3 •What is the price elasticity of cigarettes? •What is the effect of reducing class size on student achievement? •What is the effect on earnings of a year of education? •What is the effect on output growth of a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates by the Fed? The focus of this course is the use of statistical and econometric methods to quantify causal effects. 4 1.1 Economic Questions We Examine Question #1: Does Reducing Class Size Improve Elementary School Education The marginal benefit and cost of reducing class size Data: 420 California school districts in 1998 5 Evidence: Students in districts with small class siz