宏观调控对住房按揭贷款行为影响的有效性分析_洪露.pdfVIP

金 论坛 融 2013年第6期（总第210期） 宏观调控对住房按揭贷款行为影响的有效性分析 洪 露 ［摘 要］本文通过建立线性回归模型和 Logistic 二元回归模型，从微观 角度研究宏观调控对住房 按揭贷款行为影响的有效性。研究结果表明，中央银行调整贷款基准利率对居民住房按揭贷款首付比例 选择有显著影响，贷款基准利率每提高 1%，会使住房按揭贷款首付 比例提高 1.62%；但长、短期贷款基 准利差的变化并不会显著影响居民住房按揭贷款期限的选择。同时，借款人性别、教育程度、供养人数、 家庭收入 、房屋价值、区域等因素对居民住房按揭贷款首付 比例的选择有显著影响；贷款金额、家庭收 入、借款人年龄、教育程度、区域等因素对居民住房按揭贷款期限的选择有显著影响。 ［关键词］宏观调控；住房按揭贷款 ；基准利率；首付 比例 ；贷款期限 ［文章编号］ （ ） ［ 分类号］ ； ［文献标志码］ 1009 - 9190 2013 06 - 0037 - 07 JEL E51 G21 A The Effectiveness of the Impacts of Macroeconomic Regulation and Control on Housing Mortgage Loan Behavior HONG Lu ［ ］ Abstract By building a linear regression model and a binary logistic regression model, this paper analyses the effectiveness of the impacts of macroeconomic regulation and control on housing mortgage loan behavior. The results show that the benchmark ’ interest rate of loan, adjusted by the central bank, will significantly impact the resident s choice of the initial down-payment ra－ tio of mortgage loan. The 1% increase in benchmark interest rate will cause 1.62% increase in initial down-payment ratio. But ’ ’ the change in interest rate spread between long -term loan and short -term loan doesn t significantly impact the resident s ’ choice of mortgage loan term. Meanwhile, borrower s gender, education degree, number of raised person, family income, house value, area, etc.