疯狂还是理性从“弃考”现象到人力资本投资实物期权分析.pdfVIP

疯狂还是理性？ —— 从“弃考”现象到人力资本投资：实物期权分析 刘定 摘要：由于高等教育投资是一项极其重要的人力资本投资，并且具有不可逆性、 收益的不确定性和具有个人选择的自由，因而个人有动机选择接受高等教育的时 机和方式。本文的主要目的是讨论不确定性和不可逆性对个人选择高等教育时机 的影响。利用包含灵活性或期权价值的实物期权方法，得出了与传统人力资本投 资模型截然不同的结论。期权价值使得个人不愿意立即接受高等教育，并要求投 资的高回报。由于未来收入是不确定的，我们将其表示成一个连续的随机过程， 再由动态规划方法得出了收入的临界值。依据该临界值，个人可以做出是立即接 受还是推迟接受高等教育的决定。另外本文通过比较静态分析，得出了高风险、 高教育成本会抑制个人立即投资，同时政府的相关政策如收入税收和教育补贴也 会影响人力资本投资决策。 关键词：人力资本投资，高等教育，不确定性，不可逆性，实物期权 Crazy or Rational? —From College Entrance Test Abandonment Phenomena to Human Capital Investment: Real Option Analysis Abstract: Individuals have incentives to decide the timing and way of higher education due to its irreversibility, uncertainty and some leeway to choose. Higher education is a crucial human capital investment. The main purpose of this paper is to figure out the effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on the timing decision of higher education. We get distinct results making use of real option approach compared with the traditional outcome from standard human capital theory. The option value makes individuals reluctant to be enrolled into college and demands high return for flexibility abandonment. We characterize the future income as a continuous stochastic process and then formulate a cutoff income from dynamic programming method. Individuals can rely on this critical value to make choices. In addition, we get some comparative static results, such as higher risk and high education cost leading to longer waiting and government policy like income tax and subsidy casting effects on the human capital investment decisions. Keywords: Human Capital Investment; Higher Education; Uncertainty; Irreversibility; Real Option *刘定：重庆大学经济与工商学院，技术经济学博士研究生，E-mail ：dingliumath@ 一、引言 教育投资已经