行业经济发展对我国环境影响分析.docVIP

题目: 行业经济发展对我国环境影响分析  摘 要 在现代社会，行业经济分类作为重要的统计分类，对社会和经济发展的研究具有重要的意义，本文通过统计模型分析了行业经济发展和环境污染之间的关系，并对如何防范和治理环境污染提出了建议。本文收集了1989-2011年的行业经济发展指标和环境污染指标，首先利用因子分析将3个环境污染指标综合为一个环境污染指标，命名为综合环境因子，然后又用格兰杰因果检验方法检验了各行业经济是否为环境的格兰杰原因，最后利用向量自回归模型分析了各行业经济对环境污染的贡献度。得出的结论如下，从1989年到2011年以来对环境污染贡献度最大的是建筑业，占了所有行业的34%，电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业及农林牧渔业等第一产业对环境的污染相对较小，从各行业经济发展对环境污染影响程度的增长趋势来看，电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业及农林牧渔业等第一产业对环境污染影响的贡献度逐渐减小，第三产业和制造业基本保持不变，建筑业对环境污染的影响则逐渐变大。因此若要改善环境，治理环境污染，应该重点解决建筑业、制造业和第三产业对环境的污染。 关键词：环境污染 行业经济 因子分析 格兰杰因果检验 向量自回归模型 Abstract In modern society, industry, economic classification as an important statistical classification of social and economic development of the research has important significance, this paper analyzes the statistical model of economic development and trade relationship between environmental pollution, and how to prevent and control environmental Pollution is suggested. This collection 1989-2011 years of industry indicators of economic development and environmental pollution indicators, the first to use factor analysis to three indicators of environmental pollution as a comprehensive environmental pollution index, named for integrated environmental factors, and then tested using Granger causality test whether the environment in sectoral economic Granger cause Finally vector autoregression model to analyze the various sectors of economic contribution of environmental pollution. Concluded as follows, from 1989 to 2011 since the contribution of environmental pollution is the biggest construction industry accounted for 34% of all industries, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, the first industrial pollution of the environment is relatively small, from all sectors of economic development impact of environmental pollution on the growth trends, Electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, the first industrys contribution