产品碳足迹评价中不确定度与敏感度相结合的数据质量分析.pdf

中国环境科学 2014,34(4) ：1067~1072 China Environmental Science 产品碳足迹评价中不确定度与敏感度相结合的数据质量 分析 陈 莎 1*,李燚佩 1,曹 磊 2,刘尊文 2,陈迎新 3 (1.北京工业大学区域大气复合污染防治北京市重点实验室,北 京 100124 ；2.环境保护部环境认证中心,北京 100029 ；3. 中国印刷技术协会,北京 100085) 摘要：产品碳足迹评价中,数据种类、来源、获取途径和量化方法的选择不同将直接影响到评价结果的可靠与否.本文建立了结合敏感度 和 DQI-Monte Carlo 不确定度分析的产品碳足迹评价数据质量分析模型.首先通过敏感度分析识别出产品碳足迹评价中的主要数据,再采 用 DQI-Monte Carlo 不确定度分析方法对主要数据进行数据质量判定,甄选出影响评价结果可靠性的关键数据,并由此有针对性地提出数 据质量改进意见,从而有效地优化数据收集方案,减少碳足迹评价结果的不确定度.建立的方法应用于我国某塑料软包装印刷企业的印刷前 阶段碳足迹评价中. 关键词：碳足迹；数据质量分析；不确定度；敏感度；数据优化 中图分类号：X820 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2014)04-1067-06 Data quality analysis with combination uncertainty and sensitivity for carbon footprint assessment of products. CHEN Sha1* 1 2 2 3 , LI Yi-pei , CAO Lei , LIU Zun-wen , CHEN Ying-xin (1.Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China ；2. The Ministry of Environmental Protection Certification Center, Beijing 100029, China；3.The Printing Technology Association of China, Beijing 100050, China). China Environmental Science, 2014,34(4)：1067~1072 Abstract ：The results of carbon footprint assessment of products depend on the selection of data types, sources, assessment approaches. The purpose of this study is to develop a new method which is combined DOI-Monte Carlo with sensitivity analysis and data quality analysis method for carbon footprint assessment of products. For this new approach, firstly, the primary data impacting on the assessment result were chosen through data sensitivity analysis; then, with DOI-Monte Carlo analysis the uncertainty of the primary data and the key data that affect the evaluation results were obtained. As a result, the