巴菲特Buffett：为什麽股票跑赢黄金和债券.pdf

.com February 9, 2012 Business News Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds In an adaptation from his upcoming shareholder letter, the Oracle of Omaha explains why equities almost always beat the alternatives over time. By Warren Buffett FORTUNE — Investing is often described as the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future. At Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) we take a more demanding approach, defining investing as the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more pur- chasing power — after taxes have been paid on nominal gains — in the future. More succinctly, investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date. From our definition there flows an important corollary: The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in mea- Illustrations by Darren Booth suring risk) but rather by the probability — the reasoned as these holders continued to receive timely payments probability — of that investment causing its owner a loss of interest and principal. This ugly result, moreover, will of purchasing power over his contemplated holding pe- forever recur. Governments determine the ultimate value riod. Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky of money, and systemic forces will sometimes cause them as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased to gravitate to policies that produce inflation. From time to purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will time such policies spin out of control. see, a nonfluctuating asset can be laden with risk. Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable c