气候变化对我国农业旱涝灾害的影响.pdf

农业环境科学学报 2011,30(9):1713-1719 Journal of Agro-Environment Science 气候变化对我国农业旱涝灾害的影响 1，2 1 1，3 吕 军 ，孙嗣旸 ，陈丁江 （1.浙江大学环境与资源学院，杭州 310029 ；2.教育部环境修复与生态健康重点实验室，杭州 310029 ；3.浙江省亚热带土壤与植 物营养重点实验室，杭州 310029） 摘 要：最近几十年来，气候变化导致我国水资源的变化并给农业生产带来一系列影响，已经引起越来越多的关注。本文根据全国 分区统计数据，分析了农业水旱灾害情况的变化，试图评述由气候变化引起的水资源变化对我国农业生产的影响。结果表明，气候 变化对我国水资源变化的影响具有强烈的时空差异，导致了我国北旱南涝的情形加重；东北、西北和华北地区旱灾成灾比例显著上 升，而华中地区、华东、华南和西南地区水灾比例有所上升。本文还就如何采取应对措施，减缓气候变化对农业水资源利用的影响， 提出了看法和建议。 关键词：气候变化；水资源；农业生产；水旱灾害 中图分类号：X16 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672- 2043(2011)09- 1713- 07 Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Flood and Drought Damages in China 1，2 1 1，3 LV Jun , SUN Si-yang , CHEN Ding-jiang （1.College of Environmental Science and Natural Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China; 2.China Ministry of Education Key Lab of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China; 3.Zhejiang Provincial Key Lab－ oratory of Subtropic Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China） Abstract ：In recent decades, climate change impact of the variations in water resources and agricultural production in China has attracted more and more attention. Based on the national division of statistics data, this study analyzed the impact of flood and drought damages on the agricultural production to reveal the relationships between agricultural production and water resources variation caused by climate change in China. The results showed that the impacts on agricultural production by the water resources presented strong spatial and temporal variations. The situation of flood in south and drought in north is more serious. The proportion of drought disasters in northeast, northwest and northern China were increased significantly, while the proportion of flood disaster in central China, east, south and southwest regions were increased. Finally, we proposed