一个不精确的两级水规划不确定条件下的农业灌溉管理模式.pdf

Agricultural Water Management 97 (2010) 1905–1914 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Agricultural Water Management j o u rn al h omepage: w w w. elsev /locate/agwa t An inexact two-stage water management model for planning agricultural irrigation under uncertainty W. Li a,1, Y.P. Li a,∗ , C.H. Li b,2 , G.H. Huang a,3 a Research Academy of Energy and Environmental Studies, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China b School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: In this study, an inexact two-stage water management (ITWM) model is developed for planning agricul- Received 26 January 2010 tural irrigation in the Zhangweinan River Basin, China. The ITWM model is derived from the incorporation Accepted 10 July 2010 of interval-parameter programming (IPP) within a two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) framework. Available online 5 August 2010 It can reflect not only uncertainties expressed as probability distributions but also interval numbers. Moreover, it can provide an effective linkage between conflicting economic benefits and the associated Keywords: penalties attributed to the violation of the predefined policies. Four decision scenarios associated with Agricultural water different water-resources management policies are examined. Targeted incomes, recourse costs, and net In