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2110_ftp.pdf
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
Int. J. Climatol. 31: 687–695 (2011)
Published online 4 March 2010 in Wiley Online Library
() DOI: 10.1002/joc.2110
The Nonlinear trend of runoff and its response to climate
change in the Aksu River, western China
a b a b a a
Jianhua Xu, * Yaning Chen, Feng Lu, Weihong Li, Lijun Zhang, and Yulian Hong
a The Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China, the Department of Geography, East Chi na Normal University, Shanghai 200062,
China
b The Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
ABSTRACT: The nonlinear trend of runoff and its response to climate change in the Aksu River were identified and
evaluated using several selected methods, including grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis, and regression analysis. The
time series of runoff and related climate variables from two hydrologic stations and four meteorological stations during
1959–2005 for the Aksu River were used to construct and test empirical models. The key findings of this study indicate that
although the time series of the runoff, temperature and precipitation present nonlinear trends, the runoff exhibits a linear
correlation with the temperature and precipitation. These results reveal that there is a close relationship between variations
in the annual runoff of the Aksu River and regional climate change; in other words, the nonlinear trends of the variations
in the runoff is the response to that of regional climate change.
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