《《Chronic Misperception and International Conamp;ordm;ict》.pdf

Chronic Misperception and International Conºict Chronic Misperception Charles A. Duelfer and and International Stephen Benedict Conºict Dyson The U.S.-Iraq Experience Why did the United States and Iraq ªnd themselves in full-scale conºict with each other in 1990–91 and 2003, and in almost constant low-level hostilities during the years in- between? We suggest that the situation was neither inevitable nor one that ei- ther side, in full possession of all the relevant information about the other, would have purposely engineered: in short, a classic instance of chronic mis- perception. Combining the psychological literature on perception and its pathologies with the almost unique ªrsthand access of one of the authors— Charles Duelfer—to the decisionmakers on both sides, we isolate the percep- tions that the United States and Iraq held of each other, as well as the biases, mistakes, and intelligence failures of which these images were, at different points in time, both cause and effect. First, we consider the basic concept of misperception, and explain why core features of international politics combined with the limited cognitive resources of decisionmakers inevitably produce some degree of error. This informs the central task of the article: isolating and explaining the images and beliefs that the United States and Iraq held about themselves and about each other. On the Iraqi side, we ªnd evidence that President Saddam Hussein underes- timated U.S. hostility prior to the wars of 1990–91 and 2003. He failed to appre- c