《oilseed-trade-12-10-2016》.pdf

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service December 2014 Weak Early-Season Indian Soybean Meal Exports Contribute to Tight Global Markets Though global soybean meal prices are down from last year, they remain higher than expected given the improved soybean supply situation. Reduced exports from key countries have constricted global soybean meal supplies and supported prices. Although Argentina’s situation has a major impact (see October report), others such as India are also contributing to tight markets. India’s soybean meal exports are off to a slow start with November shipments estimated at only 165,000 tons. While this is nearly a three-fold increase over October, it is merely one-quarter the volume typically shipped in November. The reasons for the sluggish exports are complex. Earlier in the year, Indian prices were well above competitors, leading to lower exports. However, recent price declines have brought Indian quotes much closer to other exporters, particularly the United States where sales have been strong. This suggests that India’s lagging exports may also be a function of limited availability, caused by growing domestic demand and modest crush. Reduced crush is likely a result of slower sales from producers, in response to lower prices and late harvest, as well as weaker processing margins, caused by growing vegetable oil imports. For an email subscription, click here to register: /accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA OVERVIEW Global soybean production is higher on larger crops in Canada, Paraguay, and Ukraine. Soybean trade is raised as increased exports from the United States and others more than offset lower Argentine and Brazilian shipments. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged for soybeans