贝叶斯理论在红粘土地基沉降中的应用.pdfVIP

第29 卷 第4 期 长安大学学报( 自然科学版) Vol. 29 No. 4 2009 年7 月 Jou nal of Changan Unive sity( Natu al Science Edit ion) Jul. 2009 : 2009) 1 2 1 1 李珍玉, 李海洋, 王永和 , 杨果林 ( 1. , 410075; 2. , 8 10008) : 通过对实测样 进行直方图分析和假设检验, 得到样 的概率分布, 结合先验分布, 基于贝 叶斯方法得到沉降修正系数的后验分布, 对传统的沉降修正系数进行优化实例分析结果表明: 当 先验分布为无信息分布时, 其后验分布受样 信息的影响较大; 当样 信息服从高斯分布时, 其后 验分布也服从参数为和的高斯分布, 值随外荷载增大而减小, 值呈无明显规律变化; 通过贝 叶斯方法的优化, 修正经验系数考虑了荷载的影响, 并且取值的区间明显缩小 : 岩土工程; 贝叶斯理论; 沉降修正系数; 先验信息; 后验分布; 均匀分布; 高斯分布 : T U433 : A Appli cation of Bayesian theory in ground settlement of red cl ay 1 2 1 1 LI Zhenyu , LI H aiyang , WA NG Yonghe , YA NG Guolin ( 1. Scho ol of Civ il Eng inee ing and A chitectu e, Cent al So uth U niv e sity , Chang sha 4 10075, H unan, China; 2. D epa tment of Co mmunications, Q inghai P o vince Gov e nment, Xining 810008, Q inghai, China) Abstract: T he p obability dist ibut ions of samples measu ed a e obtained t h oug h histo g am anal y sis and hypot hesis t esting. T he po st e io dist ibut ion coeff icient s can be go tt en based on the Bayesian app oach and co mbined w it h p io i dist ibut ions of t he settlement modificat ion coeff i cient s. T he analysis esult s show t hat w hen the p io dist ibut ions a e t he noninf o mat ion, the post e io dist ibut ions of co efficient s a e g eatly inf luenced by sam ples info matio n. When the dist ibut ions of sam ples a e app oved t o obey Gaussian dist ibut io ns, t he post e io dist ibut io ns of coefficients also o b