《Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity》.pdf

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149 (2009) 1266–1278 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Agricultural and Forest Meteorology journal homepage: www.els /locate/agrformet Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection Fulu Tao a,*, Zhao Zhang b, Jiyuan Liu a, Masayuki Yokozawa c a Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China b State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China c National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Article history: Estimates of climate change impacts are plague with uncertainties from many physical, biological, and Received 7 November 2008 social-economic processes. Among the urgent research priorities, more comprehensive assessments of Received in revised form 12 February 2009 impacts that better represent the uncertainties are needed. Here, we develop a new super-ensemble- Accepted 19 February 2009 based probabilistic projection approach to account for the uncertainties from CO2 emission scenarios, climate change scenarios, and biophysical processes in impact assessment model. We demonstrate the Keywords: approach in addressing the probabilistic changes of maize production in the North China Plain in future. Agriculture