《Effect of climate change on air quality》.pdf

Atmospheric Environment 43 (2009) 51–63 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Atmospheric Environment journal homepage: /locate/atmosenv Effect of climate change on air quality Daniel J. Jacob a, *, Darrell A. Winner b a School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA b Office of Research Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA a b s t r a c t Keywords: Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies Climate change have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological Air quality variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by Air pollution meteorology general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different Ozone Particulate matter approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global Mercury circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM–CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone