基于ZScore模型的我国制造行业上市公司财务预警的分析（）.doc

基于Z-Score模型我国制造业上市公司财务预警分析 学生姓名：唐XX 指导老师：陈X 摘 要 随着社会主义市场经济体制逐步完善和资本市场的快速发展，许多公司既面临因国外跨国企业资金涌入带来的挑战又面临经营管理不善等内部原因造成的威胁，因为这一原因有可能产生一系列的财务风险，进而引发财务危机。一旦发生财务危机往往会给投资者，债权人企业乃至国家造成重大损失。如何降低财务风险，减少损失，成为各厉害关系人关注的焦点。因此，建立有效实用的财务预警模型是具有重大现实意义的。 本文在分析了国内外研究现状，研究的背景，意义，分析方法的基础上，从财务预警理论着手，阐述了财务预警的概念，财务危机的认定，探讨了财务预警的功能和原理，按照这一原理，选取了制造业的一系列财务数据指标，通过构建我国制造业上市公司的财务预警模型---Z-Score模型进行了实证分析。 关键词：财务预警， 制造业，Z-Score模型 Z-Score model of Chinas manufacturing industry listing Corporation financial early warning analysis based on Author : Tang Y a Y un Tutor : Chen S h u Abstract With the rapid development of the socialist market economic system gradually perfect and capital market, many companies are facing both for foreign multinational enterprises of funds into the challenges facing poor management of internal cause of threat, for this reason may produce a series of financial risk, and then lead to financial crisis. Once the financial crisis tend to investors, creditors, enterprises and the country caused heavy losses. How to reduce financial risk, reduce losses, become the focus of attention of the stakes. Therefore, to establish an effective financial early-warning model utility is of great practical significance. Based on the analysis of the domestic and international research status, research background, significance, based on the analysis method, starting from the financial early-warning theory, elaborates the concept of financial early warning, identification of financial crisis, discusses the principle and function of financial early warning, according to this principle, the transport industry a series of financial data. Through the financial early warning model, ---Z Score model construction of Chinas transportation industry listing Corporation makes empirical analysis. Key words: Financial early warning, Manufacturing industry, Z-Score model