林毅夫教授演示资料在多极增长世界中校正全球经济的不平衡.ppt

* Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President and Chief Economist The World Bank * Toronto, November 23, 2010 The Global Crisis and Challenge Ahead The Emergence of Multiple Growth Poles The Multipolar Growth World and Global Recovery * * The global financial crisis erupted in September 2008. The initial shocks to global equity markets, trade, and industrial production were more serious than the initial shocks of the Great Depression. The danger of another depression on a global scale was immense. * The governments learned lessons from the past, quickly held the G20 meeting in Washington and adopted coordinated policy responses. Major policies included: Financial rescues Free trade These two policies helped avoid the worst-case scenario. Monetary easing Fiscal stimuli The two policies above increased demand. With the inventory cycle, the recovery is stronger than initially expected. The global economy is likely to grow from a contraction of 2.1 percent in 2009 to a positive rate of around 3.3 percent in 2010. * Industrial production volumes, index, January 2008=100 127 100 90 88 Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group Excess capacity repressed domestic demands Low consumption demand due to high unemployment and job insecurity Low incentives for private investment Slower growth A weakening domestic financial system Worsening sovereign debts * Dilemma of fiscal stimulus: Continuing fiscal stimulus Effectiveness? (Ricardian Equivalence) Sustainability? (Rapid accumulation of public debts) Exiting from fiscal stimulus Likelihood of a double dip Increasing unemployment Public debts may also increase due to lower fiscal revenues and higher social spending. Dilemma of monetary policy: Stimulus may have reached its limits. Stimulus can lead to currency tension. Solution: Productivity-enhancing type investment-led growth, domestically and or globally Such opportunity is limited in developed countries but abounds in developing countries * * After the I