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InstrumentalVariablesandtheSearchforIdentification.PDF
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 15, Number 4—Fall 2001—Pages 69–85
Instrumental Variables and the Search
for Identification: From Supply and
Demand to Natural Experiments
Joshua D. Angrist and Alan B. Krueger
he method of instrumental variables is a signature technique in the
econometrics toolkit. The canonical example, and earliest applications, of
Tinstrumental variables involved attempts to estimate demand and supply
curves.1 Economists such as P.G. Wright, Henry Schultz, Elmer Working and
Ragnar Frisch were interested in estimating the elasticities of demand and supply
for products ranging from herring to butter, usually with time series data. If the
demand and supply curves shift over time, the observed data on quantities and
prices reflect a set of equilibrium points on both curves. Consequently, an ordinary
least squares regression of quantities on prices fails to identify—that is, trace
out—either the supply or demand relationship.
P.G. Wright (1928) confronted this issue in the seminal application of instru-
mental variables: estimating the elasticities of supply and demand for flaxseed, the
source of linseed oil.2 Wright noted the difficulty of obtaining estimates of the
elasticities of supply and demand from the relationship between price and quantity
1 See Goldberger (1972) and Morgan (1990) for a discussion of the origins of instrumental variables and
related methods. Bowden and Turkington (1984) provide a more technical discussion of instrumental
variables. The term “instrumental variables” originated with Olav Reiersøl (1945); Morgan cites an
interview in which Riersøl attributed the term to his teacher, Ragnar Frisch.
2 In the early 1920s, Wright’s son, Sewall Wright, developed “causal path analysis,” a method-of-
moments-type technique for estimating recursive structural mo
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