GrowthinnumbersofSicknessandInvalidsBenefitrecipients.doc

Growth in numbers of Sickness and Invalids Benefit recipients 1993–2002 Cohort analysis technical report Prepared by Moira Wilson Keith McLeod Sathi Sathiyandra Prepared for Centre for Social Research and Evaluation Te Pokapū Rangahau Arotaki Hapori May 2005 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the external reviewers who read and provided helpful comments on an earlier draft: Dr Lixin Cai and Dr Roger Wilkins of the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne; Dr Michael O’Brien of the School of Social and Cultural Studies, Massey University; and David Preston, an independent researcher. Many people within the Ministry of Social Development and other agencies provided assistance by reviewing drafts, checking material or participating in discussions. Particular thanks are due to Simon Crack for researching the history of policy and operational changes, Jolene Armadoros for administrative assistance and Mathea Roorda for overseeing the project. Disclaimer The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Ministry of Social Development. Contents Contents i List of tables iii List of figures v 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 The context for growth 2 Economic context 2 Policy and organisational context 3 1.3 Understanding the mechanics of growth 8 1.4 Method of analysis 12 2 Findings for Invalids Benefit 15 2.1 Duration 15 2.2 Inflows 20 Contributors to growth in inflows post-1993 20 Increased transfers versus increased new inflows 24 Increased rates of receipt of other benefits versus increased transfer rates 28 The role of transfers from ACC 31 2.3 Differences between subgroups 34 Gender 35 Age 37 Ethnicity 40 Type of incapacity 43 Transfer status and benefit of origin 50 Benefit of origin by incapacity 52 2.4 Pathways off Invalids Benefit 54 Reasons why people leave IB 54 Differences over time 56 Differences by subgroup 57 3 Findings for Sickness B