《_税收经济学》.pdf

    Institute for International Business Working Paper Series IIB Paper No. 13 May 2008 Tax Policy in Developing Countries: Looking Back and Forward Roy W. Bahl Andrew Young School of Policy Studies Georgia State University Richard M. Bird Institute for International Business Rotman School of Management University of Toronto 1   Abstract We review the changing nature of tax policy in developing countries over the last 30 years and consider what factors determining the level and structure of tax revenues in such countries may have changed recently and how such changes may affect future developments. 2   A century ago any list of the developing countries of the world would almost certainly have included three regions of recent settlement -- Canada, Australia, and Argentina. Today, only Argentina would be included in such a list. Did different tax choices have any influence on this outcome? Arguably, they may have done so. Argentinas heavy reliance on export taxes and its failure to develop an adequate internal tax system undoubtedly played some role first in derailing its impressive economic progress in the early years of the last century and then in explaining its inability to get firmly back on the growth track in the latter half of the century. Whether this argument is right or not, this brief story introduces two of the most important lessons that have been learned about taxation and development over the last hundred years. The more obvious lesson is simply that one must be careful not to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs -- in Argentinas case, agricultural exports. A less obviou