中国经济管理与财务知识分析指数.pdf

Economic Monitoring in CEMAC China Economic Monitoring Analysis Center CEMAC To Be Discussed  Composite Index: leading, coincident, lagging index.  Climate Signal  Business Tendency Survey  Consumer Confidence Survey  Economist Survey Contents 1.Macroeconomic Climate Index 2.Basic Analysis Methods of Climate Cycle 3.Determination of Reference Cycle Establishment of 4.Determination of Leading Indicators China’s 5.Determination of Lagging Indicators Macroeconomic Climate Index 6.Changes in Statistical Scope, Seasonal Adjustment and Price Index Adjustment 7.Changes in Indicator System of Climate Index 8.Compilation of Climate Index 9.Construction of the Business Cycle Signal System and Business Cycle Index 1.Analysis on Tendency of Climate Index, Business Cycle Index and GDP Empirical Study 2.Guidance of Climate Index and Business Cycle Index to China’s Economic Operation on China’s Macroeconomic 3.Problems in Compilation Climate Index and Business Cycle Index Climate Index 4.Prediction on Economic Tendency Next Year Based on Leading Index CEMAC Prat1 1.Introduction of Macroeconomic Climate Index China Economic Climate Research Team in Department of Integrated Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics of China China Economic Monitoring Center （CMAC） Economic Daily and Rural Development Research Center of the State Council -1993 China Econo