城市居民短距离行公共交通模式研究.pdf

Study on the Public Transport Model of Urban Resident Short-distance Travel A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate：Zhang Xiao Supervisor：Prof. Wu Qunqi Chang’an University, Xi’an, China 摘 要 随着城市经济的发展，城市交通问题日趋严重，公共交通成为解决城市交通供需矛 盾的主要手段。近年来我国对城市公共交通重视程度越来越高，常规公交及轨道交通等 公共交通方式得到了很大的发展。但现有公共交通体系不能形成“门”到“门”服务， 无法满足城市居民短距离出行需求的缺陷也严重制约了其吸引力的提升，居民使用公共 交通出行的意愿不强，公共交通的分担率也远远低于发达国家的水平。公共自行车作为 近年来发展很快的新型公共交通模式，能以其技术经济特点很好的满足居民短距离出行 需求，构建起完善的“门”到“门”公共交通服务体系，从而提升整个公共交通系统的 吸引力。 本文首先引入城市居民短距离出行的概念，总结归纳其特点，并对短距离出行方式 选择的影响因素进行分析；其次通过对现有三种主要公共交通模式特点及其短距离出行 的适应性进行分析，阐述现有城市公共交通体系的缺陷；进而引入公共自行车的定义及 特征，明确其在城市交通中的功能定位；最后通过西安市的实证分析，根据非集计模型 原理，建立了短距离出行效用函数，并运用SPSS 软件对各种影响因素进行了参数标定 及分析，最后预测出公共自行车及其他方式在短距离出行的分担率。 关键词：城市交通、短距离出行、公共自行车、非集计模型 I Abstract With the development of urban economy, urban traffic problem become more and more serious, public transportation is the main means to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of urban traffic. In recent years we pay more attention to public traffic, public transportation way such as bus and rail transportation got a great development. But the existing public transportation system cannot provide the door to door serve and cannot satisfy the demand of urban resident short-distance travel. These defect condition the attraction of public transportation system so resident do not have strong will to use it, our public transit trip contribution rate is far below the level of developed countries. Public bike is a new model of public transportation system and it develops very fast. Its technical and economic characteristics can meet the demand of short-dist