江淮地区冬小麦渍害指标与风险评估模型研究.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2009,25(19):263-268 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 江淮地区冬小麦渍害指标与风险评估模型研究 1 1 2 盛绍学 ，石 磊 ，张玉龙 1 2 （安徽省气象局，合肥230061 ；合肥市气象局，合肥230031 ） 摘 要：为研究渍害对冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响，确定渍害指标，建立冬小麦渍害风险评估的技术体 系。对多种气象资料、地理背景资料、冬小麦产量资料的进行统计分析，采用逐年的相对气象产量值，构 建冬小麦渍害减产率，分析江淮地区冬小麦渍害孕灾环境和渍害基本特征进行。结果表明，渍害是冬小 麦减产的主要因素，淮河以南区域冬小麦减产率≥10%的情况有80%是渍害引起的。综合考虑降水量、 降水日数和日照的作用，基于灾损率和致灾因子确定了冬小麦渍害灾害分级指标，构建了反映冬小麦渍 害程度的评估模型。 关键词：渍害指标；特征；江淮地区；冬小麦 中图分类号：S166 文献标识码：A 论文编号：2009-1019 Study on Waterlogging Disaster Index and Risk Assessment Model of Winter Wheat in Jianghuai Region 1 1 2 Sheng Shaoxue , Shi Lei , Zhang Yulong 1 2 ( Anhui Meteorological Bureau , Hefei 230061; Hefei Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230031) Abstract: We researched the effect of waterlogging upon winter wheat growth and yield. We found the grade in⁃ dices of waterlogging disaster. The technological system of winter wheat waterlogging disaster risk assessment was built. Statistics of meteorological data, GIS data, winter wheat yield data and so on were analyzed. Using the relative meteorological yield the reduction rate of winter wheat yield was counted. In the paper the essential environment and waterlogging disaster characters of winter wheat were analyzed. The main reduction factor of wheat yield was waterlogging. 80 percent of reduction in wheat yield (rate above 10 percent) was caused by wa⁃ terlogging to the south