Farm Policy Its Place in an Inflationary Economy.pdfVIP

Farm Policy: Its Place in an Inflationary Economy Harold F. Breimyer Forecasting is an appealing activity that in our future? To what degree will human agriculture is not only useful but inescapable. behavior be in control; and is it predictable? Anticipation of the future is implicit in the What indeed is the metaphysics of determi- biology of plants and animals, not to mention nacy? the durability of tractors and cowbarns. The issue has captivated philosophers for In a sense the scientific method is itself ages and will not be dwelt on here. I turn to a predictive. Relationships established from more empirical judgment. In my observa- observation are expected, within tolerable tion, economists have not set a very good error, to yield predictable outcomes upon record of prediction. Otto Doering calls replication of conditions. agricultural economists record unenvi- Yet the idea of foreseeing the future has able. We could easily tick off several events never lost the mystical touch, the Merlin of recent decades that were at best foreseen image. As one reason, chance events are imperfectly. known to imperil the best tooled forecasts. A Moreover, the current state of economic second cause for an aura of the occult is the wisdom is not reassuring. Not since a com- irresponsibility so often exhibited by prac- parable time in our economic history, name- titioners. ly, the beginning of the depression of the All this is canon. I suggest a more 1930s,